Fuel cost comparison
Heat pump vs gas furnace: which is cheaper to run?
Dollar for dollar, a heat pump beats a gas furnace once its efficiency (COP) clears a break-even point set by your electric and gas rates. Below is that break-even point for every state, using average residential rates, plus a calculator for your own.
Why this isn’t one number
A gas furnace turns fuel into heat at a fixed efficiency (AFUE) — a 95%-AFUE furnace delivers 95 cents of heat for every dollar of gas, regardless of the weather. A heat pump is different: it moves heat rather than making it, so one unit of electricity can deliver two, three or four units of heat — its coefficient of performance, or COP. The catch is that COP falls as the outdoor temperature drops. So “heat pump vs gas” isn’t one answer; it is a comparison that moves with the thermometer. That is exactly why heatpump.blue’s main tool doesn’t stop at one average COP: it looks at every outdoor temperature your home actually sees over a winter, and your rates, to find the single switchover temperature that costs the least overall.
Your own prices
Enter your electric rate, gas rate and furnace AFUE. This compares one heat pump efficiency (COP) against gas — it does not weight by outdoor temperature across your winter the way the full tool does.
- Gas, $/MMBtu
- $12.63
- Heat pump, $/MMBtu
- $14.65
- Break-even COP
- 3.48
Cost per million BTU and break-even COP, by state
Gas assumes a 95% AFUE furnace. Heat pump columns show the cost of delivered heat at a steady COP of 2, 3 or 4. “Break-even COP” is the heat pump efficiency at which it costs the same as gas in that state — above it, the heat pump is cheaper; below it, gas is. Rates are each state’s average residential price for the most recent complete heating season, bundled at build time (as of 2026-10-08); your own utility’s rate may differ.
| State | Gas, $/MMBtu | HP @ COP 2, $/MMBtu | HP @ COP 3, $/MMBtu | HP @ COP 4, $/MMBtu | Break-even COP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | $13.27 | $38.20 | $25.47 | $19.10 | 5.76 |
| Alabama | $17.56 | $23.91 | $15.94 | $11.96 | 2.72 |
| Arkansas | $21.28 | $18.83 | $12.55 | $9.41 | 1.77 |
| Arizona | $18.88 | $22.92 | $15.28 | $11.46 | 2.43 |
| California | $22.89 | $47.92 | $31.94 | $23.96 | 4.19 |
| Colorado | $11.13 | $24.09 | $16.06 | $12.05 | 4.33 |
| Connecticut | $17.73 | $41.38 | $27.59 | $20.69 | 4.67 |
| District of Columbia | $16.69 | $35.05 | $23.37 | $17.53 | 4.20 |
| Delaware | $17.42 | $25.28 | $16.85 | $12.64 | 2.90 |
| Florida | $25.79 | $22.76 | $15.17 | $11.38 | 1.76 |
| Georgia | $17.93 | $21.01 | $14.01 | $10.51 | 2.34 |
| Hawaii | $56.84 | $60.08 | $40.05 | $30.04 | 2.11 |
| Iowa | $10.44 | $19.12 | $12.75 | $9.56 | 3.66 |
| Idaho | $7.27 | $18.10 | $12.06 | $9.05 | 4.98 |
| Illinois | $10.82 | $26.00 | $17.33 | $13.00 | 4.80 |
| Indiana | $11.18 | $24.41 | $16.28 | $12.21 | 4.37 |
| Kansas | $13.95 | $21.76 | $14.51 | $10.88 | 3.12 |
| Kentucky | $14.35 | $20.27 | $13.51 | $10.13 | 2.82 |
| Louisiana | $19.06 | $18.79 | $12.52 | $9.39 | 1.97 |
| Massachusetts | $25.85 | $45.21 | $30.14 | $22.60 | 3.50 |
| Maryland | $16.93 | $30.49 | $20.33 | $15.25 | 3.60 |
| Maine | $18.77 | $43.18 | $28.79 | $21.59 | 4.60 |
| Michigan | $10.81 | $29.40 | $19.60 | $14.70 | 5.44 |
| Minnesota | $10.98 | $22.49 | $15.00 | $11.25 | 4.10 |
| Missouri | $15.68 | $18.24 | $12.16 | $9.12 | 2.33 |
| Mississippi | $15.45 | $21.67 | $14.45 | $10.84 | 2.80 |
| Montana | $9.02 | $19.34 | $12.90 | $9.67 | 4.29 |
| North Carolina | $18.88 | $21.16 | $14.11 | $10.58 | 2.24 |
| North Dakota | $9.13 | $16.98 | $11.32 | $8.49 | 3.72 |
| Nebraska | $11.63 | $17.91 | $11.94 | $8.95 | 3.08 |
| New Hampshire | $19.70 | $39.15 | $26.10 | $19.58 | 3.98 |
| New Jersey | $14.59 | $33.73 | $22.49 | $16.87 | 4.62 |
| New Mexico | $10.80 | $21.89 | $14.59 | $10.95 | 4.05 |
| Nevada | $10.38 | $20.32 | $13.55 | $10.16 | 3.92 |
| New York | $17.46 | $41.13 | $27.42 | $20.57 | 4.71 |
| Ohio | $12.91 | $26.00 | $17.33 | $13.00 | 4.03 |
| Oklahoma | $15.00 | $19.21 | $12.81 | $9.61 | 2.56 |
| Oregon | $16.70 | $22.10 | $14.73 | $11.05 | 2.65 |
| Pennsylvania | $15.09 | $29.79 | $19.86 | $14.90 | 3.95 |
| Rhode Island | $21.31 | $44.55 | $29.70 | $22.27 | 4.18 |
| South Carolina | $17.23 | $22.90 | $15.27 | $11.45 | 2.66 |
| South Dakota | $10.09 | $19.84 | $13.23 | $9.92 | 3.93 |
| Tennessee | $12.77 | $19.50 | $13.00 | $9.75 | 3.05 |
| Texas | $20.43 | $23.30 | $15.53 | $11.65 | 2.28 |
| Utah | $11.09 | $19.30 | $12.87 | $9.65 | 3.48 |
| Virginia | $16.96 | $23.43 | $15.62 | $11.72 | 2.76 |
| Vermont | $17.29 | $34.76 | $23.17 | $17.38 | 4.02 |
| Washington | $17.21 | $20.38 | $13.59 | $10.19 | 2.37 |
| Wisconsin | $11.62 | $26.92 | $17.95 | $13.46 | 4.63 |
| West Virginia | $13.62 | $22.21 | $14.81 | $11.11 | 3.26 |
| Wyoming | $11.63 | $19.68 | $13.12 | $9.84 | 3.38 |
Source: EIA residential electricity and natural gas prices, heating-season average. See data sources.
See when gas wins at your home
Enter your ZIP, your heat pump model and your rates, and get the lockout temperature that costs you least, with the range it is sensitive to.
Questions
- Is a heat pump cheaper than gas?
- It depends on your electric rate, your gas rate, and how efficiently your heat pump runs at the outdoor temperatures you actually get. Above its break-even COP, the heat pump is cheaper per unit of heat; below it, gas is. The table on this page shows each state's break-even COP using average residential rates.
- Is it cheaper to run a heat pump or a gas furnace?
- Compare the cost of delivered heat, not the price of the fuel: a gas furnace loses some heat up the flue (AFUE), and a heat pump multiplies each unit of electricity by its COP. This page's calculator does that math with your own prices.
- Why does the answer depend on outdoor temperature?
- A heat pump's COP falls as it gets colder outside, so the same heat pump can be cheaper than gas on a 40 °F day and more expensive on a 10 °F day. The break-even COP on this page is a single-temperature snapshot; heatpump.blue's main tool weighs your whole winter's hours at each temperature to find the one lockout setting that costs you least overall.
- What AFUE and COP does this page assume?
- A 95% AFUE gas furnace (a typical modern condensing furnace) against heat pump COPs of 2, 3 and 4 — roughly what a standard-efficiency unit delivers in cold weather up to what a cold-climate heat pump delivers in mild weather. Enter your own furnace AFUE and heat pump COP in the calculator for a closer estimate.